Chicagoist: Welcome To Ryan Watch

Nicholas Jones

Sat, 03 Dec 2005 20:41:49 -0600

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John

Wed, 23 Jun 2004 16:19:31 -0600

Well, you guys should be faster or watching the blogs. This is posted on Wonkette.com: http://www.wonkette.com/archives/jack-ryan-the-sum-of-all-fears-016694.php

dw

Wed, 23 Jun 2004 13:34:40 -0600

Agree with Benjy for the most part. I think JR hangs in there, and narrows the gap with Obama significantly before the fall. Look for heartwarming stories of person redemption starting in mid-July, including a press conference with JR and the challenged son. Whoever the republican Jesse Jackson is will be there. (Stumped here.) That said, I do not think there is any chance of JR winning, barring an Obama scandal of some sort. (Obama should just go hide in a cave for the next 4 months.)

Benjy

Wed, 23 Jun 2004 13:16:29 -0600

Michael, were the numbers prior to this relevation closer I'd tend to agree that the GOP wouldn't give up when the Senate is 51-49. However, Obama's victory was so resounding in the primaries that I don't think there could be any realistic chance of beating him. In a 7-way race, he gained 652,826 votes--53% of those cast in the Democratic primary. Ryan only received 234,541 votes--36% of votes cast in the GOP primary. Even Dan Hynes, the distant second place finisher in the Dem. primary received 60,000 more votes than Ryan did. And since Kerry had already locked up the nomination for all intents and purposes, I don't imagine that the presidential primary had a substantial impact on turnout. There also does not seem to be an obvious alternate candidate with which to replace Ryan. Jim Oberweis, the second place finisher? His anti-immigrant stance didn't go over very popular in a state with many voters who are immigrants or children of immigrants. Former governor Jim Edgar? A political retread vs. a young, widely popular up-and-comer? Doesn't bode well, either.

Michael

Wed, 23 Jun 2004 12:09:07 -0600

There's no way the Republicans are going to just "let Illinois go." With the Senate so close in numbers (51-49, I believe), there's no way the national GOP apparatus would risk losing their majority at the national level by sacrificing a local lamb. It's just not going to happen. As others have said, #2 is the key step. So far, most politicians are tap-dancing around and refusing to commit. Judy Baar Topinka's silence speaks volumes. I say this, by the way, as someone who's leaning toward voting for Obama.

Benjy

Wed, 23 Jun 2004 09:29:53 -0600

I still believe he'll stay in the race as the GOP patsy... at least then the GOP has something other than the will of the state's voters to point their finger at when Obama wins in a landslide.

Don

Wed, 23 Jun 2004 08:54:16 -0600

Seems that Lynn Sweet is the only columnist at the Sun-Times that thinks Jack Ryan has a chance at staying in the race if he manages to survive this imbroglio of his own making. Even Neil Steinberg thinks the guy is toast, which is pretty surprising for Neil. The #2 step, listed above, will be pretty crucial, as the GOP can make six years seem like a long time if Ryan pulls off a political miracle and wins in November--they will be in no mood to support a person who lied to them. I say he's out by mid-July, and he'll probably be replaced by a well-meaning sacrificial lamb. I was thinking that Rauschenberger might be that guy, but if he declines due to wanting to run for governor in 2006, it may be the Milk Dude who steps up to the plate.

The Backer

Wed, 23 Jun 2004 08:33:13 -0600

I think the Illinois GOP & media are the least of his worries...I believe the Klingon-Trekkies are going to come down on him for treating their girl Jeri like that ... the Wrath of Khan!