Super Tuesday Preview

2008_2_super_duper_tuesday.jpgToday's the big day. Along with 24 other states, we're voting in Super Duper Tuesday. Up for grabs are 1688 pledged Democratic delegates, and 900 Republican delegates. Delegate-heavy states such as California, New Jersey, New York, Illinois and Georgia could play a deciding role in the outcome of both races. But with polling showing a tight Democratic race, and Obama working overtime to split votes in odd-numbered districts, tonight's results won't produce a nominee for the Democrats.

On the Republican side, John McCain has some serious momentum, fresh off decisive, key wins in South Carolina and Florida. Right-wing criticism notwithstanding, he's also gotten some critical endorsements, including Arnold Schwarzenegger, Rudy Giuliani and George Pataki, as well as the Los Angeles Times. Mitt Romney, well funded and polling close behind McCain will be a formidable foe against the Arizona Senator in several delegate-rich states.

California is a critical state for both parties, with 170 Republican delegates (and a winner-take-all primary structure), and 370 Democratic delegates (and proportional allotment). Early voting in that state will impact the outcome tonight. Floridians cast about a quarter of their ballots early in the Democratic primary there, and that turnout seemed to favor Clinton. Likewise, Obama has been doing very well in the Bay Area, especially in suburban San Fransisco. Early votes for Clinton around the state, and high turnout for Obama in the Bay Area will likely contribute to an even split there.

Whether Mitt Romney stays in the race after tonight is anyone's guess, but we're betting that McCain walks away from February 5 with the Republican nomination. The Democratic race, however, is far from over, and Clinton and Obama have at least a few more primaries between them before this race is over.

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Comments (11) [rss]

I've voted for almost 20 years, but I don't remember a time I woke up feeling so optimistic about the country and so excited to go vote. I can't wait to go vote today and be one step closer to our National Nightmare being over.

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Word - I have voted for only 8 years or so but it feels different. I hope that the turnout is huge and atypical and that political representation is thus altered. This country needs to get - and stay - engaged in the state of things or we are going to be living the movie Idiocracy.

What is this, 1960? Don't get your hopes up. Last time our "long National Nightmare" was over, we got Ford and Carter.

Hey Spav1, does it hurt to be so young, yet so cynical?

Spav's right for issuing this caution, which should be especially heeded by those who think Obama is the messiah.

That said, nearly anyone who still has a shot in this race can hardly be worse than Bush.

Don't worry about Kevin, Spav. He's still singing the Internationale.

I think best case scenario -- no matter who wins -- is that we'll go from a "National Nightmare" to a "National Fitful Dream". Not exactly enough to make me giddy as a schoolgirl. Err, or "happygrl" if you will.

I was mostly making fun of happy girl for using "Long National Nightmare" in a totally inappropriate way.

And Kev, yeah, it does hurt. But not as much as reading your almost Stalinist-in-their-Devotion, grammatically inaccurate posts. Thanks.

Stalinist-in-their-Devotion

That's the second time you've referenced him in like a day, somebody's sweet on ole' Joe.

As for nightmare's I am not optimistic, the only consolation is that things can only improve after 8 years of what would seem like a deliberate attempt to collapse this country. As for influence peddling, corporate welfare and swarms of lobbyists I expect business as usual.

I have a thing for facial hair...what can I say.

My point is that the political system in this country is designed to maintain the status quo. So while Rome didn't crumble in 8 years, there is no such thing as a white knight either.

Spav: All systems are designed to maintain what already is. It's just that some systems allow for more positive flexibility and opportunity than others (I think the US Constitution is a pretty decent baseline, for instance). All systems, though, work to preserve themselves and the elite, however one defines "elite."

There may be no white knight, but the last eight years has taught us, yet again, the damage one man and his administration can do.

Eh, nothing is done that can't be undone.

I don't really care either way.

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