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The Chicago Police Department is touting figures that show an 11 percent decrease in homicides through the first nine months of 2009 over the same period of 2008, 348 total compared to last year's nine-month total of 393. Homicides of "youth" - categorized as being between the ages of 6 and 18 years old - were down by a total of 14.5 percent. The announcement comes at a time when the city is receiving particular close scrutiny due to the highly-publicized murder of 16-year-old Derrion Albert, a visceral crime caught on tape and replayed on news programs around the world.
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Interesting, but let's dig a little deeper (Tribune: this is known as research):
Chicago Homicides through Sept 30:
2004: 356
2005: 353
2006: 355
2007: 341
2008: 393
2009: 348
So the story should be not about how there was a "drop" in 2009 but a return to the status quo after an elevated number in 2008. While the actual math of the CPD's 11% drop is correct it is a case study in how to deceive with statistics. Example: From a technical perspective the drop in homicides in NYC from 2001 to 2002 would show a drastic improvement. I think we all know what happened in 2001 in NYC. The raw statistic ignores other factors. (side note: the per 100,000 murder rate in NYC is 5-6 and Chicago is 15-16, NYC has an almost identical number of murders but nearly 3 times the population.)
If we dig deeper into the research rabbit hole we find that almost half of this year's difference from last was in one month. Here is the 2009 monthly percent increase/decrease from the 2004-08 monthly average:
Jan: 91.9%
Feb: 109.6%
Mar: 49.5%
Apr: 108.1%
May: 120.5%
June: 92.1%
July: 103.2%
Aug: 106.5%
Sept: 91.1%
So in the first nine months of 2009 we see 5 with an increase, 3 a slight decrease and 1 a major decrease over the previous 5 year average. So instead of sending out bogus press release "statistics" about the drop in murders in 2009 the department should be looking at what was going on in March that made such an impact and what they were doing wrong in 2008.
Source: CPD website and tracked here.
Thanks for abiding such a long comment.
I forgot to add: The mayor just spent three years touting the 2016 Olympics as the best economic engine for Chicago. I contend that a meaningful reduction in crime and a wholesale improvement in the school system would leave the 2016 game's economic impact to shame.
It ain't sexy and takes real effort with little financial upside for Chicago's political power brokers but just "Imagine" (Didn't some other group just use that word on its banners?) what living in Chicago would be like with half the crime and a functioning school system. It's a pretty amazing place to live and work now but damn would that be something.
Can I get an AMEN?!?
AMEN! Really though, excellent analysis. Thank you.
Juxtaposed to Los Angeles...
As of September 26 this year, there have been 236 homicides compared to 279 this time last year.
Weather also had a lot to do with the murder rate.
It has been proven (and ask any Chicago Cop) that cool weather and rainy days means less murders. Since Chicago's 2009 summer was one of the coolest on the books in nearly 100 years (averaged 70 deg through July 30), we can conclude that the "murder rate drop" has been nothing but an anomaly.
Of course, with all the cuts in the police budget, hiring and manpower, politicians like Daley will happily jump all over their "11% drop."
Hopefully, the intelligent won't buy into the political spin. With CPS school children being killed and drawn into gangs at an alarming rate and crime sinking it's teeth even into "the last refuge" known as Lincoln Park, everyone but Daley & company knew that the Olympics should have been the last thing on the agenda.
70+ million to finish LAST in the Olympic bid...
or 70+ million to make our City safer.
Think about that and remember what Daley picked when election time rolls around.
a) The $70+ million to which you were referring was private money from donations, not public money. It's not like that $76.9 mil that was spent in the bid would have otherwise gone to public safety.
b) Really. Lincoln Park is your last refuge. Yup, all the dilapidated ghetto neighborhoods of Lincoln Square, Logan Square, Beverly, Kenwood, North Center, etc.
I'm not claiming you are incorrect about being concerned about crime, or that you are wrong to question Daley, but seriously, read up before you rant.