Super Tuesday Preview

By Kevin Robinson in News on Feb 5, 2008 1:00PM

Today's the big day. Along with 24 other states, we're voting in Super Duper Tuesday. Up for grabs are 1688 pledged Democratic delegates, and 900 Republican delegates. Delegate-heavy states such as California, New Jersey, New York, Illinois and Georgia could play a deciding role in the outcome of both races. But with polling showing a tight Democratic race, and Obama working overtime to split votes in odd-numbered districts, tonight's results won't produce a nominee for the Democrats.

On the Republican side, John McCain has some serious momentum, fresh off decisive, key wins in South Carolina and Florida. Right-wing criticism notwithstanding, he's also gotten some critical endorsements, including Arnold Schwarzenegger, Rudy Giuliani and George Pataki, as well as the Los Angeles Times. Mitt Romney, well funded and polling close behind McCain will be a formidable foe against the Arizona Senator in several delegate-rich states.

California is a critical state for both parties, with 170 Republican delegates (and a winner-take-all primary structure), and 370 Democratic delegates (and proportional allotment). Early voting in that state will impact the outcome tonight. Floridians cast about a quarter of their ballots early in the Democratic primary there, and that turnout seemed to favor Clinton. Likewise, Obama has been doing very well in the Bay Area, especially in suburban San Fransisco. Early votes for Clinton around the state, and high turnout for Obama in the Bay Area will likely contribute to an even split there.

Whether Mitt Romney stays in the race after tonight is anyone's guess, but we're betting that McCain walks away from February 5 with the Republican nomination. The Democratic race, however, is far from over, and Clinton and Obama have at least a few more primaries between them before this race is over.