Mid-Season Report: The Cubs
By Matt Motyka in News on Jul 16, 2009 8:20PM
Photo by Matt Motyka
Heavily favored to win the division at season's start, the Cubs have not had the first half that many bleacher bums were anticipating. At 43-43, Chicago sits 3.5 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals in what looks to be a five-team race for the Central (sorry, Buccos). What's gone awry since Opening Day? The easier question to answer is what hasn't. Aside from a reliable Ryan Theriot, a resurgent Derrek Lee, and steady results from the starting rotation, the '09 roster has paraded its shortcomings. Let's recap.
Topping the list of underachievers is perennial All-Star Alfonso Soriano. Hitting a scant .233 through the first 86 games, Soriano has posted the worst first-half numbers of his career. This, following an April that put him on pace to establish career highs in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, doubles, home runs and RBIs. Sori's slump consumed the months of May and June, in which the left fielder hit only .207. The encouraging news is that many of Soriano's recent outs have been loud ones (his strikeout frequency is down 31 percent from May's rate), and his average has crept back up to .265 for the first part of July. Perhaps if Soriano and new hitting coach Von Joshua can devise a way to straighten out a few curveballs, the slugger can regain his $136 million form. [To see why Soriano and so many other batters struggle with breaking balls, check out this fascinating animation and hypothesis from the Vision Sciences Society.]
Another player falling short of the lofty expectations set for him is new acquisition Milton Bradley. Bradley, who has produced in the categories of tiffs, gaffes and injuries, hasn't done as well when it comes to hitting. To his credit, Bradley is boasting the team's best on-base percentage at .379, which ranks him seventh among the 33 other position players earning $6-8 million this season. Unfortunately, walks are not the best means for driving in runs, and when it comes to batting average and RBIs per at-bat, Bradley ranks 27th and 26th respectively among his peers. Bradley's weakness thus far has been the left side of the plate (.200 lefty vs. .350 righty), giving Joshua another mid-season salvage project.
Further disappointments for Cubs' fans include the sub-par performance of Geovany Soto, the lack of production in center, and the extended absence of Aramis Ramirez due to injury. Soto, who will now be sidelined for the next few weeks with a strained oblique, is mired in a sophomore slump, hitting a mere .230. Neither Kosuke Fukudome or Reed Johnson has impressed offensively in center, both with batting averages in the neighborhood of .250. On an up note, however, the return of Aramis Ramirez promises to reintroduce some pop to the order. Ramirez's two-month hiatus left the squad short an All-Star infielder--inconvenient for a team still scrambling to replace Mark DeRosa. With Ramirez once again standing firmly at third, some combination of Mike Fontenot, Aaron Miles, Andres Blanco and Jeff Baker will hopefully stick at second.
From a pitching standpoint, the Cubs are in pretty good shape. Ted Lilly represented the North Siders in the All-Star affair, and Randy Wells has provided a boost at the back end of the rotation. The Cubs will have to work around Ryan Dempster's broken toe and a rocky start by Rich Harden, but the starters currently claim the fourth-best WHIP in the Majors. Lonely lefty Sean Marshall will probably need some company in the 'pen and fewer walks by setup-man Carlos Marmol would be advantageous.
Scoring an average of just over four runs per game (good for next to last in the N.L.), the bottom line is that the Cubs need more offense. With the slumbering bats of Soriano, Bradley and Soto, and the recent return of Ramirez, there is plenty of potential to turn the tide in 2009. Here's to hoping the Cubs' playoff prospects start looking a little less bankrupt than their financial ones.