Play Ball! Previewing the 2010 Cubs
By Marcus Gilmer in Miscellaneous on Apr 2, 2010 4:00PM
The 2009 Chicago Cubs went 83-78 (one rainout was never made up) and finished 7.5 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central, missing out on the playoffs after back-to-back appearances (and back-to-back first round exits) in 2007 and 2008. Like their South Side counterparts, the result wasn't a surprise. Which is disappointing considering they did have the third highest payroll in the majors. While the Cubs had power, landing in the top third of the NL in homers, they were otherwise anemic offensively, ranking in the middle of the league for runs, runs per game, and RBIs. They barely scored more runs than they allowed (707 to 672) and that number was a dramatic decrease from the 855 runs they scored in 2008. Perhaps the most telling sign of the 2009 Cubs was that they had the third oldest offense with an average batter age of 29.9 years. And with last offseason's two big signings - Milton Bradley and Kevin Gregg - proving to be huge flops, the Cubs look to get energized in 2010 but they may be running out of time.
Starting Line-Up:
Ryan Theriot - SS
Kosuke Fukudome - RF
Derrek Lee - 1B
Aramis Ramirez - 3B
Marlon Byrd - CF
Alfonso Soriano - LF
Mike Fontenot - 2B
Geovanny Soto - C
Starting Rotation:
Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly*, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzelanny, Carlos Silva
*- won't join team until late April
Key Additions:
Marlon Byrd - OF, Xavier Nady - OF, Chad Tracy - 3B, Carlos Silva - SP
Key Departures:
Milton Bradley - OF, Kevin Gregg - RP
The Cubs parted ways with right fielder and clubhouse troublemaker Milton Bradley, paving the way for Kosuke Fukudome to return to right field where he feels more comfortable. In center field will be Marlon Byrd, the anti-Bradley, picked up as a free agent from the Texas Rangers. Byrd's coming off one of his best seasons (20/89/.283 in '09 with the Rangers). Another addition from Texas is new Cubs hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo who's already making a splash with Cubs hitters this spring. In left, Alfonso Soriano hopes to give the team its money's worth and rebound from a mediocre 2009 campaign (.241 avg, 118 strikeouts). Free agent signing Xavier Nady, Sam Fuld, and rookie Tyler Colvin, who had a break out spring, figure to get some playing time as the season goes on as well. As for the infield, little has changed over the past few seasons. Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez remain at the core of the squad after both had terrific 2009 campaigns (though Ramirez's was cut short by injury). The middle infield of Fontenot and Theriot remain entrenched at their positions. Behind the plate, Geovanny Soto hopes to bounce back from last year's sophomore slump and return to the form that won him the 2008 Rookie of the Year. Perhaps most important is that, for now, the fielders are all healthy heading into Opening Day. Theriot will lead off putting Soriano sixth in the line-up. The lineup will also favor hitting from the right side of the plate, a method that worked well for the team in 2008.
The Cubs rotation also looks mostly the same with Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly (come late April) and Wells leading the charge. Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva, acquired in the "Good God, just give us something to take Milton Bradley off our hands" trade, will step into the rotation though one of them figures to lose their spot after Ted Lilly returns from injury in late April. Lilly was the ace of the staff last season while Wells was the pleasant surprise; the Cubs will hope for more of the same from them this year. Meanwhile, the temperamental Zambrano hopes to have a bounce back season (even though last year's 9-7 campaign wasn't altogether awful) and Ryan Dempster likewise hopes to get back to his 2008 form. Carlos Marmol will get the nod as closer after last year's Kevin Gregg Experiment failed, but when Marmol had opportunities even last season, he didn't make the most best impression with some shaking outings. Overall, the Cubs starters weren't that bad; the bullpen was just that awful. The team led the majors in walk-off losses (13) and Gregg and Marmol had their fair share of blown saves. It's going to come down to that bullpen - including Sean Marshall and Jeff Samardzija - carrying their load in the late innings of games, especially if the offense falters again.
The big concern for the Cubs fans is age and durability. The only positional starters under the age of 30 are Fontenot (29) and Soto (27). And while Lee had a healthy 2009, he, Ramirez, Soriano, and Soto have all struggled with injuries over the past few seasons, not something you want to hear about the power core of your lineup (Ramirez was second on the team in RBIs last year despite missing a good chunk of the season due to injury). While they didn't exactly stand pat, the Cubs didn't do a lot of wheeling and dealing in the offseason under new ownership, choosing to make choice veteran signings (and that Bradley trade) rather than any big free agent splash. More money is being spent on stadium upgrades than on new blood. If anything, the Cubs are putting their money on a shot in the arm (Byrd, Colvin) reinvigorating an aging team that has one last good run in it before a rebuilding cycle potentially begins. Piniella has played coy about his intentions to manage after this year, Lilly and Lee are free agents, and Ramirez has an option for 2011 that will allow him to be paid $14 million for 2011 or opt out as a free agent. Even with a promising minor league system, this season could be the last big push for this current crop of Cubs.
For the short-term, it rests on the shoulders of a veteran team; the chemistry is there and they fared well this Spring. Even Carlos Silva had some sharp outings. But the team has to stay healthy. Last season, 15 players spent time of the DL; if there are too many injuries, the bottom could fall out pretty quick even if subs off the bench like Nady, Fuld, and Micah Hoffpauir step up. If they stay healthy and if the offense can get things clicking and if they can manage to stop stranding runners on base and if the bullpen can hold up its end of the deal...well, the Cubs will have a chance to make a run at the Cardinals in the NL Central or even the Wild Card depending on how the Braves and Phillies shake things out in the NL East. But that's a mighty big if. While the optimist in us sees the Cubs making a run like 2008, we think a few key injuries will be enough to hold the team back. We expect the Cubs final results will shadow that of the Sox: 85-77, second place in the division, and for the second straight year on the outside of the playoffs looking in. 102 years and counting.