Cubs Season Preview

By Staff in News on Mar 31, 2011 4:40PM

By Joel Reese

This Cubs season comes down to one word for the North Siders, and unfortunately that word isn’t “championship” or “dynasty” or “awesomeness.”

No, that word is “If.”

See, no one is thinking the Cubs are World Series caliber this year. But IF a couple some thousands of maybes come true, the Cubs could conceivably contend for the National League Central crown. Let’s run down a few of those hypotheticals.

PITCHING

IF Carlos Zambrano is the legitimate, wily pitcher he was late last year, (8-0, 1.41 from August 9 on) and not the berserker, Hulk-smash, raged-out nutjob he’s been pretty much every other year, he could win 15 games. That would be huge.

IF Matt Garza is as good as Jim Hendry thinks he is and Ryan Dempster has another typically solid year, the Cubs could have a 1-2-3 starting rotation that’s among the best in the NL (although clearly not better than the Phillies).

IF Randy Wells is the Randy Wells of 2009 (12-10, 3.45) and not the Randy Wells of 2010 (8-14, 4.26), the Cubs could have a rotation that actually improves on last year’s 96 quality starts — which was good enough for second in the major leagues. (That’s to say nothing of recently named fifth-starter Andrew Cashner, a 2008 first-round pick whose fastball nears triple digits. Whee!)

But this raises a question: IF the Cubs had 96 quality starts last year, why did they finish a mediocre 75-87? Well, the bullpen was, how you say, crapsville. The relievers’ ERA was 4.72, which was second worst in the majors. But IF the bullpen improves with the return of prodigal son Kerry Wood and a more experienced Sean Marshall, the Cubs could be in good shape when stud closer Carlos Marmol gets the ball in the ninth.

OFFENSE

IF Aramis Ramirez has a comeback, he could hit 30 homers and drive in 100 RBIs. At one point last season, Ramirez’s on-base percentage was a brutal .268 and he was putting up power numbers that would embarrass Mick Kelleher. (Get it? Former Cub Kelleher had 1,081 ABs and never hit a homer. Baseball humor!) Some people seem to think Ramirez will simply return to his previous norm and put up great — or at least solid — numbers. Will he? We’ll see.

IF Carlos Peña provides defensive stability at first base and hits above .200, the offense could come together. This seems like the biggest IF of the bunch: Peña’s average has slipped from .247 to .227 to .196 (ouch) over the last three years, and the Cubs are his sixth team in ten seasons. Does a 32-year-old first baseman simply turn his career around because of the warm breezes at Wrigley Field? Hmmm. But let’s also remember that he’s a former Gold Glove winner and hit 28 homers and had 84 RBIs in a domed stadium last year. So…

IF youngsters Starlin Castro and Tyler Colvin improve on their solid seasons, the Cubs could have a nucleus worth building around. And the Cubs aren’t counting on much from Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome. But IF they contribute, that would be a huge step toward a decent offense.

All told, the Cubs’ offense is nothing but a huge collection of question marks. If you were to ask me who their best hitter will be, I’d say… Geovany Soto? Maybe Tyler Colvin? That’s the thing. We don’t know. Which is obvious — of course we don’t know. The team hasn’t played any games. But it’s almost impossible to tell who’s going to excel for this team, offensively.

Lastly, on to the front office.

MANAGEMENT

IF Mike Quade is the miracle worker he seemed to be last year, he could bring a leadership that’s been missing the last few years. The Cubs’ last three permanent managers have been “celebrity” skippers — i.e., names that seemed like the obvious choices. Don Baylor, Dusty Baker, and Lou Piniella all came in with grandiose ideas and vows that the Cubs’ time was finally here. Baylor left bewildered, Baker departed irate at perceived disrespect (and trailing several pitchers’ shredded elbows in his wake), and Lou was just… done. (And maybe a little soused.)

But Quade simply seems like a solid guy who’s earned his players’ respect. Is he a brilliant X’s and O’s guy? We don’t know. But IF that 24-13 record from last year wasn’t a mirage, and IF the players continue to play hard for him, they might be onto something.
Lastly, onto the front office. IF the Ricketts family does what it says it’s going to do, personally I’m optimistic about the future. The family has gotten a pretty bad shake lately — they’ve been in charge for about a year and a half, and people are already pining for the days of some anonymous, pleated-pant, needle-dicked Trib exec? Good God.

To my mind, the Ricketts family has caught an undeserved amount of flak for the way things are going with the team. If you look at the good things they’ve done, they’ve:

• Committed to a state-of-the-art training facility in the Dominican Republic.
• Vowed to build from the ground up, using team’s own prospects. Check out Brett Jackson, for instance, and tell me you’re not excited. The trio of Colvin, Jackson, and recent signee Matt Szczur (who saved a girl’s life by donating bone marrow, for Pete’s sake) could provide the team’s best outfield since, well, forever.
• Tried to upgrade Wrigley Field and make it a world-class facility. Contrary to what the Tribune’s assholish buffoon Steve Rosenbloom says, there is some honor in trying to work with a city and not extorting it with the threat of moving. That said, the Ricketts family has understandably raised some hackles by trying to get public funding in the midst of an economic downturn. (And clearly, Mayor-elect Emanuel isn’t a fan of the family’s most recent plan.) But given the way the White Sox held the state over a hot radiator to get their ugly-ass, upside-down-cockroach of a stadium financed, the family’s efforts to get public funding looks like the Yalta Conference. And given that Wrigley Field outdraws the Lincoln Park Zoo, the Art Institute, Millennium Park, and both museums (combined), it seems reasonable that the city would help pay a modicum to make it more crowd-friendly. The Ricketts family should be on the hook for the majority of the money, but to my mind, both the city and the Cubs would benefit from a revitalized Wrigley Field.

But bigger picture, here’s the thing about the Ricketts family: They’re smart. Unlike another sports organization in town that thinks playing on a ratty, ripped-up field is a home-field advantage, the Cubs have smart people at the top. So even if this year doesn’t result in a World Series trophy (a safe bet), I’m thinking that 2012 will be a lot better. Several huge contracts (Fukudome, Carloses Pena and Silva, John Grabow, Aramis Ramirez, and Jeff Samardzija) will come off the books, so that’s when we’ll see where the Cubs are really headed.

BOTTOM LINE: The Cubs will finish with a record of 79-83, 3rd place in the NL Central.

Joel Reese is a former Editor at Time Out Chicago and WeSeed.com, a financial education website, and former Editor-in-Chief for the greatly lamented website and newsletter for all things Chicago Cubs, Cubs Fan Report. Joel’s work has also appeared in Chicago, Texas Monthly, Spin, Details, Mobil Travel Guide, Playboy.com, Deadspin, Mediaite, and Best American Sports Writing of 1996. Follow Joel on Twitter at @joelcreese and check out more of his writing at www.joelcreese.com.