Fantasy Football Week 7: Wandering the Waiver Wire

By Alexander Hough in Arts & Entertainment on Oct 18, 2011 4:00PM

The sun sinks over the desolate wasteland. As hunger clouds rational thought, you spot movement along the horizon. You run after the skittering animal, your pounding heart resonant in the cavern of your empty stomach. You capture your prey, but it is just a vole. Precious energy has been expended for two pounds of sinewy meat.

Such is life on the waiver wire in the 2011 NFL season.

It's been slimmer pickings than usual this year. Available receivers are little more than lottery tickets, and RBs feel like exercises in futility. Our theory is that this fantasy quandary is a function of the league-wide trend towards more passing.

It's a well-documented phenomenon. Here are the latest numbers (excluding last night's game) based on data that we gathered from the website Team Rankings:

• Passes/Game: 35.1, up 1.3 passing plays from 2010 and 2.7 from 2003
• Passing Yards/Game: 242.9, up 21.6 yards from 2010 and 41.7 from 2003
• Passing Plays as a % of Total Plays: 58.6%, up 1.6% from 2010 and 3.7% from 2003
• Passing Yards as a % of Total Yards: 68.2%, up 2.4% from 2010 and 5.2% from 2003

The general consensus is that the increase in the past eight years^* is the result of rules to protect QBs and WRs. New rules protecting defenseless players instituted this past offseason are likely responsible for this season's jump (in his recent anti-passing polemic, The Boston Globe's Greg Bedard also points to the limit on padded practices).

Catalysts aside, 2011's inflated passing numbers come from two sources. First, teams are throwing more. Second, according to research done by Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats (read here, with more detail here), yards after catch are way up. Burke suspects that this is due to more RB and WR screens, although we're partial to the theory that receivers are now less worried about getting Austin Collied when running over-the-middle timing patterns.

The NFL passing game has changed. Coaches and players have adjusted to the new rules (and to the steps defenses have taken to counter the passing proliferation). Matt Bowen of the National Football Post lists five relatively new strategies offenses now use that fuel the juiced numbers. Crucially, all but one involve the trend of using a greater number of receivers.

Here are the fantasy implications for specific positions:

QB: Everything is wonderful. It's not necessary to burn an early draft pick on a QB anymore.

TE: With the increased use of athletic TEs to create mismatches, everything is wonderful here, too. The exceptions are teams who haven't embraced the TE-as-passcatcher concept or who use blocking TEs to help their troubled offensive lines.

RB: Carries are down. Rushing yards are down. RBs are increasingly used as receivers, but not all RBs are good at pass protection or route running, which further shrinks the available talent pool. And worst of all? The concurrent rise of the RB-by-committee.

WR: As Bowen points out, teams are using spread alignments with multiple receivers. The passing pie might be bigger, but it's being divided into more slices, particularly with RBs and TEs catching more balls. The Saints are leading the way, with seven different players with double-digit receptions so far this season. Three of those guys play RB or TE.

If these trends continue, fantasy football draft strategy will have to be completely revamped. We can't overstate how important a change this would be to a hobby whose importance can't be understated.

In the meantime, it's time to go hunting for voles.

Peyton Hillis (RB, CLE)
In addition to statistics-driven analysis, our opinions are strongly influenced by mindless superstition. If the past 10 years have taught us anything, it's this: angry video game god make bad-bad for Madden cover man! Look, we have no idea what's going on - Hillis, who's been trying to play hardball on a new contract, missed most of last Sunday's game with a pulled hamstring, only to come back in at the end - but two things are certain: Hillis seems to be on the outs in Cleveland, and even if he wasn't, he hasn't been good this year anyhow. His backup, Montario Hardesty, is worth an add if you have the roster space.

Carson Palmer (QB, OAK)
Holy crap. Oakland just traded a 2012 first round pick and a conditional 2013 second round pick (which can turn into a first rounder) for former Bengals QB Carson Palmer. That is a huge sum to pay for a guy we're not even sure is good anymore. Current QB Jason Campbell broke his collarbone on Sunday and is projected to be out for six to eight weeks. He's a free agent after next year and will probably not be back now that Palmer's in town.

Oh, Oakland. Poor, pitiful Oakland. Their 2012 draft is now without a pick in round one (Palmer), round two (trade with New England during the 2011 draft), round three (drafting QB Terrelle Pryor in the supplemental draft), round four (trade for Jason Campbell), and round seven (trade for LB Aaron Curry). For the record, that means they've used three early round picks on QBs. It's just mind-blowing.

Anyhow, if you're not a Raiders fan, this is decent news. Palmer will certainly be an upgrade over current backup Kyle Boller, which bodes well for the fantasy value of RB Darren McFadden and the Oakland WRs; they won't necessarily be more valuable than before, but their value won't plummet, either. As far as Palmer himself, there are better fantasy QBs out there - it'll take time for Palmer to learn the offense - but he'll make for a decent backup.

Felix Jones (RB, DAL)
Jones will be out for two to four weeks after he sustained a high ankle sprain in the Cowboys' loss to the Patriots. Rookie DeMarco Murray will fill in, and while Jones will probably resume main back duties when he returns, Murray will face some poor rush defenses over that span (St. Louis, at Philadelphia, Buffalo). If you need a short-term fix, pick up Murray.

Brandon Lloyd (WR, STL)
Lloyd was traded to the St. Louis Rams yesterday as the Broncos prepare to spend the rest of the year being a really bad football team. We're not sure if reuniting with his old coach will make Lloyd's fantasy value skyrocket, but we certainly like Sam Bradford better than Tim Tebow. The downside to that is that Bradford has a high ankle sprain and will likely miss some time, so Lloyd will be receiving passes from A.J. Feeley, who we also like better than Tebow.

On the Denver side of things, Eric Decker stands to benefit from Lloyd's departure. And don't forget about second year WR Demaryius Thomas, who will be returning from injury this week.

Earnest Graham
His 131 total yards last Sunday were nice and as unexpected as the Bucs' victory over the Saints. You can use him this weekend against the Bears, but the Bucs have a bye the following week, and starter LeGarrette Blount will return from his MCL sprain before too long.

^{* Most people see the turning point as the fallout from the 2003 season's AFC championship game, when Colts GM Bill Polian excoriated the league for allegedly not enforcing defensive penalties (e.g. illegal contact and defensive holding).↩}