Bears' (Almost) Mid-Season Recap
By Benjy Lipsman in News on Oct 31, 2011 3:40PM
With the Bears in their bye week and their season nearly half-complete, we figured now was a good time to look back on the season so far as well as their remaining schedule.
As in 2010, the Bears entered their bye week with a 4-3 record. Following their mid-season break the Bears finished the season by winning seven of their final nine to finish 11-5 and claim the NFC North crown. Do they still have a shot at the playoffs this year? Ahead of them are both an undefeated Green Bay Packers team and a resurgent Detroit Lions team who is 6-2.
Good
The biggest bright spot on the season has been Matt Forte... especially since Mike Martz began calling running plays again. In losses to the Saints and Packers, Forte ran the ball just 19 times combined. Since then, he's averaged 22 carries and 138 yards per game on the ground and the Bears are 3-1 in those games. Last year, it wasn't until after the bye week that Martz began calling a more balanced game and the Bears subsequently won five in a row. Forte has also been the Bears top performer in their passing offense, catching 38 passes for 419 yards. Combined, he has accumulated 1,091 yards from scrimmage in the first seven games -- the quickest by any player in the NFL since 2004.
Devin Hester continues to strike fear in opposing teams with his ability to turn a game's momentum at any moment. He's returned both a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns and been close on a couple more. His punt return TD against the Carolina Panthers set an NFL career mark. When opponents are afraid of Hester, that usually means better field position for the offense.
Bad
The Bears have long had a reputation for their stingy defense. But this year, the defense hasn't lived up to its reputation or expectations. Allowing 21.4 points and 380.6 yards per game, the defense is only middle of the pack in the NFL. The weakest link in the defense is the secondary, especially at safety. Incumbent Chris Harris was waived while free agent signing Brandon Meriweather has been benched. Second year player Major Wright and rookie Chris Conte are now atop the depth chart. The Bears' bend but don't break offense has broken too many times this season. Combined with an inconsistent offense, there's little surprise that the Bears are just a game over .500.
The passing offense has been up and down this year. Roy Williams has not lived up to his billing thus far, though he's shown signs of getting on the same page with Jay Cutler. Cutler has been inconsistent, but has played better when the offensive attack has been balanced. In the two losses to New Orleans and Green Bay, he completed less than 50% of his passes in game plans that saw 4-to-1 pass-to-run play calling. But his completion percentage has been better as the running game has kept defenses honest.
Ugly
Couldn't Jerry Angelo have done more to upgrade the Bears' offensive line? While he did use the team's top draft pick on Gabe Carimi, the line remains a work in progress. He let Olin Kreutz leave and replaced him with Chris Spencer, who couldn't even crack the starting line-up. Injuries have only worsened the situation across the line, as it has forced the team to field a different front five almost every week. While the run blocking has improved significantly from last season, the pass protection remains inconsistent. Jay Cutler has been sacked 21 times in spite of doing a better job of getting rid of the ball in the face of pressure. And he has still landed on his ass a whole lot. When the O-line has provided good protection, Cutler's performed well. When they have not, it's been very ugly.
Despite Matt Forte's performance on the field, management still hasn't stepped up to offer him a deal comparable to other top backs in the league. After making him a take-it-or-leave-in offer before the season, the Bears are now threatening to slap the "franchise" tag on him in order to keep him in Chicago. The Bears need to reward the one guy who has prevented them from beginning the season 0-7 and show him the money.
Prospects for the Second Half
The Bears can concede the NFC North title to the Packers, but they remain in the hunt for a wild card berth. They've still got a number of tough road games on their schedule, including trips to Philadelphia next Monday Night and Green Bay on Christmas. They open a four-week swing through the AFC West with the Chargers coming to Soldier Field in late November, so let's hope for a cold snap to give them a leg up on one of the AFC's top teams. But a key rematch with the Lions in two weeks might have the biggest implications on whether the Bears can think postseason or not.
We made our game-by-game predictions before the season began, and to this point we were correct in six of seven games (they beat Atlanta). We had the Bears finishing 9-7. We stand by most of our pre-season picks. We now think they'll lose to Philly but beat KC, which would give them a 10-6 finish. Will that be good enough to earn them a wild card? Tough to say...