Fantasy Football Week 9: Turning the Corner

By Tim Bearden in News on Nov 5, 2011 7:00PM

Between bye weeks and the tallying injury reports this season, many owners have been pulling their hair out. Cleveland running back Peyton Hillis is out again this week after re-injuring his hamstring. Hillis had been on the sidelines the past two weeks and, after re-aggravating his hammy, is out at least a couple more weeks.

Owners who have had Hillis on their team may benefit from a fresh start while he recovers. If you're close to the playoffs in your league standings and have Hillis on your team, it may be time to cycle him out to strengthen your roster. Even when he comes back, it could be another week or two until he's producing again. By that time, you're knocking on the door of the playoffs and every win counts. Hillis has also not had a 100-yard rushing game this season prior to the injury. His fate is no longer looking good for fantasy football leagues this season.

Last week's big news was Tim Tebow (QB) getting rocked against Detroit which dropped his stock with a lot of owners. His average change in ownership is negative 12 percent, according to NFL.com, which means at least 12 percent of owners have dropped him. His projetions for this week against the Raiders, who are ranked 25th in passing defense, are less than optimal (around 5 points in your average league). Many expect him to get points from his ability to rush, but don't pick him up for his quarterback prowess just yet. He only put up 172 passing yards last week and 161 the week before against Miami in his first start of the season, but has three touchdowns passing and one rushing. He's an OK number two quarterback for bye weeks, but even that's a stretch right now.

Now for the bad news. It's still a bye week. Teams on the bye this week: Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars and the Minnesota Vikings. So, crooners, we're without Cam Newton (QB) and Matt Stafford (QB) this week. Also missing from the mix are Adrian Peterson (RB), Steven Smith (WR) and Calvin "Megatron" Johnson (WR).

So let's see who's in the mix to start and sit.

Starts:

1. Tom Brady (QB) - Last week was a fluke against the Steelers. It was his first game of the season without 200-yards passing, but he continued his streak of at least one passing touchdown per game. This week they play the Giants, who's passing defense is 13th in the league. After last week, expect Brady to be out for results.

2. Aaron Rodgers (QB) - Rodgers and the Packers are facing the Chargers, who have one of the top five passing defenses in the league. But with the offensive line Rodgers has and his ability to make pinpoint throws in tight coverage still makes him viable this week. Any week for that matter.

3. Arian Foster (RB) - Foster had a fairly quiet week compare to week 7, but still managed over 100-rushing yards and one touchdown. Foster and the Texans are facing the Browns this week, who rank 26th among rushing defenses. Foster could, and should, have a very productive week this week.

4. Wes Welker (WR) - Welker was shut down last week against the Steelers. He only had 39 yards and no touchdowns. He still leads the league in receptions with 57 and has the second most receiving yards, behind Steve Smith (WR) of the Panthers. The Chargers may be tough on passing, but Welker and Brady are both hungry for a big rebound from Week 8.

5. Marques Colston (WR) - In the Saints' loss to Tampa Bay earlier this season, Colston still had 118 yards and one touchdown. Expect him to be a popular target for Brees as they look to redeem themselves from their loss last week to the previously winless Rams.

6. Darren Sproles (RB) - Sproles couldn't get anything going last week against the Rams on the ground. He had a similar experience with Tampa Bay earlier this season. The Buccaneers are still ranked 23rd in rushing defenses, so Sproles could be able to break a big one this week.

7. [ALT] Matt Ryan (QB) - With Stafford and Newton both on byes this week, Ryan would be a good alternate to fill the gaps. He's coming off a bye week and playing the winless Colts. This could be his big week.

8. [ALT] Dwayne Bowie (WR) - After his big week against Indianapolis earlier this season, Bowe has been relatively quiet. This week he's up against the Dolphins. They may have shut down Tebow's passing game, but Cassel is a little more seasoned. With Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson out this week, you could do worse.

9. [ALT] Michael Turner (RB) - He's had good games against tough teams and Indianapolis is far from one of those. The Colts rank 31st among rushing defenses and Michael Turner is talented as it is. He's should see a lot of carries.

10. Jimmy Graham (TE) - Graham had a good game against Tampa Bay earlier this season with over 100-yards receiving, but did not score. Expect him to rectify that statistical goose egg this week and likely having similar success.

Sits:

1. Ben Roethlisberger (QB) - Do not like this match-up. In week 1 Big Ben committed five turnovers, three interceptions and two lost fumbles, against the Ravens. He's playing them again this week and the Ravens passing defense is currently the best in the league. Not a likely candidate to do well.

2. Tim Tebow (QB) - See earlier paragraph. Tebow had his bell rung and his confidence is probably a little shaken after last week. Oakland may be bottom of the list against the pass, but Tebow hasn't proven he can do that very effectively yet.

3. Ryan Torain (RB) - Even with Tim Hightower out, Torain is still struggling to gain anything on the ground. This week the Redskins play the 49ers, who have the best rushing defense in the league, and still have Mike Shanahan as a coach. Steer clear.

4. Darren McFadden (RB) - McFadden is out with a foot injury this week.

5. Rashard Mendenhall (RB) - Mendenhall only had 45 yards rushing with one fumble in their last meeting with the Ravens. Expect a similiar outcome.

6. Hakeem Nicks (WR) - The Giants may be up against the worst passing defense in the league this week in the Patriots, but Nicks is listed on the injury report as doubtful. Wouldn't risk it, but his status should remain monitored.

7. Brandon Marshall (WR) - Marshall is falling on the wrong side of mediocre as of late. He has the ability to have big weeks, but just doesn't have the consistency to produce effectively for a fantasy football team. His risk is more than his reward right now.

8. Reggie Wayne (WR) - If you haven't dropped him by now, he's still not a good option to start on Sunday. Wayne and the Colts have struggled all season. Earlier this season a friend of mine told me, "You always start Reggie Wayne," based on Wayne's past. But his past was with Peyton Manning, not Curtis Painter. I don't listen to him anymore and you shouldn't start Wayne this week.

9. Antonio Gates (TE) - He didn't practice at the end of the week. That may not mean anything, but with his chronic foot injury, you can never be too careful. He's a risky start right now, but monitor his status.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (D/ST) - They didn't even get positive fantasy points in the previous meeting with the Ravens. Joe Flacco had their number in week one and I would imagine he has it again this week. Not a good option.

Those are your top ten starts and sits for week 9. Next week there are no byes, so you'll get a week reprieve before the final bye week. Hopefully injuries won't darken that silver lining.

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