Chicagoist's Oscar Picks
By Rob Christopher in Arts & Entertainment on Feb 22, 2012 4:00PM
The 84th Annual Academy Awards are this Sunday. As A. O. Scott so astutely notes, complaining about the Oscars is its own form of Oscar hype. Griping about who was or wasn't nominated, and about who will or won't win, is a sign that we actually care about the Academy Awards. Well, we'll take the bait.
When it comes down to it, much like the Super Bowl (duh) watching the Oscars is basically an excuse to hang out with some friends, imbibe, and get caught up (or gamely pretend to get caught up) in the excitement of celebrity-spotting. And there's nothing wrong with either fantasizing about who you would pick, or having a little fun by attempting to read the (overwhelmingly) old, white, male minds of Academy voters. So we sat down and, just for kicks, shot the breeze.
Rob: Why don't we start with Best Documentary Feature. Get that out of the way.
Steven: Sure, it can only get better from there. Not to be just another dispatch from the department of broken records, but they seem to be getting worse at this.
Rob: I think we can agree that this category's criteria are seriously screwed up. Then there's the fact that the Academy voters don't seem to know a whit about what's going on in the documentary world... I'm referring of course to the total absence of The Interrupters, Werner Herzog's capital punishment documentary, and Tabloid by Errol Morris.
Steven: That's some epic snubbery right there. And I don't know if the new rules are going to help, even if The Interrupters' Steve James put his best face on the situation.
Rob: So, of the nominees, who do you think should win?
Steven: I have to lean towards Pina. Because like most of the Academy, there's too many nominees I haven't seen, but what I have seen of Pina dazzled me. And it is the perfect antithesis of what will win... I think Undefeated looks like a winner. America likes their portrayals of tough social problems wrapped in a schmaltzy layer of sports metaphor. it's irresistible.
Rob: Well, I'm gonna put all my eggs in one basket here. My personal choice and prediction is Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory. I think it's remarkable what the documentary achieved by relentlessly training the spotlight on that case. And then the fact that the actual release of the this third installment was pushed back in order to incorporate new footage, giving it the qualifying run for the Oscars. Bodes well. Maybe. I think the voters can respect that.
Steven: That's the one where John Milton fights Dante?
Rob: I thought that was some Mark Wahlberg movie last year. Anyway. Moving on. Best Supporting Actress. Should win: Melissa McCarthy. Because she's a local, and because she was just plain hilarious. And because the Oscars need to recognize a good comedy whenever they can, damn it.
Steven: I agree with you that McCarthy winning it would be wonderful. But I think Olivia Spencer will win this for The Help and I'm okay with that.
Rob: I predict Jessica Chastain will win. The Academy loves hard-scrabble working white women in the Supporting Actress category (remember Melissa Leo last year?)
Steven: Well as long as the speech is equally hard-scrabble, it will make for good TV. Okay. Best Adapted Screenplay. I think the transformation wrought by the Moneyball script was extraordinary, and it would be a shame for anything else to edge it out. It's Sorkin's world, we just live in it. Among the crackling dialogue. But I do think The Descendants will probably lock it down, and I'll be shaking a fist in the air.
Rob: My sentimental choice for who should win is Hugo. John Logan's script was amazingly adept at somehow making a kid's fantasy picture co-exist with a heartfelt plea for film preservation. But somehow I think that it's gonna be Moneyball for the win. Next up: Best Supporting Actor. Every year, there's at least one category that's so easy to pick that's it's ridiculous. Christopher Plummer: should win and will win. Poor Albert Brooks. My real question is, why the hell is Nick Nolte even on the nomination list? And just give Max von Sydow an honorary Oscar already. The man is a living legend and should not have to duke it out with the likes of Jonah Hill at his age.
Steven: I agree with you. Plummer, Plummer. Nolte's on there because Hollywood for some reason loves tales of addiction and redemption. The real question: is Jonah Hill going to write a speech? Just in case?
Rob: Surely Aaron Sorkin can give him some leftovers from his script to be on the safe side. Thoughts on Best Original Screenplay?
Steven: You probably won't be surprised that I would very much love to see A Separation win this. But, as far as making a prediction? This is a tough one. Hmm. I think they're going to give it to Woody Allen. Because they eventually may rename the Best Original Screenplay Oscar "The Woody."
Rob: Well, I'd be very happy with Woody winning. I think it's a very well-written movie. So, I concur. But my personal pick? Bridesmaids. Amazingly insightful, yet funny. Just a solid, damn fine screenplay. And really, I want to see Kristen Wiig's acceptance speech. Thoughts on Best Actress?
Steven: I don't usually pull for impersonations, but Streep is uncanny as Thatcher, and it's hard to pull against her. it would be quite exciting if Rooney Mara won, considering the alternatives. But if I was betting it would be on Viola Davis for The Help.
Rob: I don't really have strong feelings this year, but I'd be pleased if Viola Davis wins--not for The Help, but just because she's just a great actress. She was so mesmerizing in Soderbergh's Solaris. And I predict that she'll win, too.
Steven: Best Foreign Film. A Separation. Has to be A Separation. I'm not sure there is anything better that can come out of the Oscars this year than having a few more Americans watch that movie.
Rob: Let's keep our fingers crossed... it should win, it needs to win, and if it doesn't win then the Oscars will have blown a golden opportunity. And (though I hate the phrase) a golden teachable moment. Best Actor?
Steven: I don't think anybody should or will take this away from Jean Dujardin. There will be a Clooney camp, and a faction of Oldman stalwarts. But Dujardin was The Artist. Plus, he could bring Uggie.
Rob: I think my choice would be Dujardin as well. He's just so ideal in that role, such grace, such presence. But... I think it's Clooney's year. And I'm cool with that, since in my opinion he is the finest American "Hollywood"-style actor currently working.
Steven: i think that is a devastating indictment of Hollywood!
Rob: Is that so? Okay then, tangent here, who do you think fits that description?
Steven: I assume a qualification would have to be that this person can command big box office receipts. Well, okay, I'm not prepared to say you're wrong with Clooney. But. Depp? DiCaprio? Damon? I love Clooney, but he is in danger of becoming a collection of Clooney-isms, in my opinion.
Rob: Well well well, this could definitely be the topic of a future conversation. But let's move on to our last two categories. First, Best Director. Is it the year of the Frenchman? I think it is. And I won't argue with that—The Artist is an audacious concept. And he pulls it off beautifully. But actually I have to say that this is one of the few years where more or less all these guys are deserving. Perhaps Alexander Payne a little less, because I think he's made better movies. But Scorsese's Hugo was his best movie in years, and Terrence Malick.
Steven: I sure would love for Payne and Hazanavicius to split the vote enough for Malick to sneak in there. An earth where Terrence Malick wins Best Director would be a fine thing, but it is not the earth we live on. It certainly appears that Hazanavicius is gonna be the one.
Rob: Now the biggie. Best Picture.
Steven: What an odd collection of nominees. I feel The Artist has all the momentum behind it. And it is made for the self-congratulatory Kodak Theater moment, right?
Rob: Yeah... I mean, I guess it's gonna be The Artist. Deeply peculiar. A silent movie about Hollywood directed by a Frenchman, winning Best Picture. I suppose out of that group, I would personally choose Hugo. But that ain't gonna happen.
Steven: All these choices for Best Picture—this category feels like the GOP presidential field, circa November 2011. There are peripheral characters that appeal to different interest groups. We eye the other factions warily. I'm a Tree of Life guy. Hugo is definitely Ron Paul, Tree of Life is Gingrich, Santorum is Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. And so on.
Rob: Wait. You're telling me you support Gingrich?
Steven: Well, he's the only one who wants to take us to outer space, right?!