Sun-Times Poll Shows Voters Prefer Karen Lewis Over Emanuel

By Chuck Sudo in News on Jul 14, 2014 1:30PM

Next year's mayoral election is still a long time away but the possibility of Karen Lewis playing spoiler against Mayor Rahm Emanuel could be very real if the Chicago Teachers Union president decides to challenge the mayor.

The Sun-Times commissioned an automated poll by We Ask America that gives Lewis a nine-point lead over Emanuel, 45.35 percent to 36.44 percent, in a head-to-head race if the mayoral election were held today, with 18 percent of voters undecided. The poll also asked registered voters who they would favor in a head-to-head matchup between Emanuel and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle. If the election were held today, Emanuel would fare worse against Preckwinkle, 55.23 percent to 30.98 percent, with 13.79 percent of respondents undecided.

It's worth stressing that a lot can happen between now and Feb. 24, 2015 so those of you reading this with chills in your spines at the thought of a Karen Lewis mayoralty can breathe easy. But the poll does give Lewis, Preckwinkle and other possible challengers to Emanuel an idea of his vulnerability and may give a couple of them the resolve to formally announcing runs for the Fifth Floor. Lewis, reached by phone in Los Angeles where she was attending a teacher's convention, was "stunned" at the poll numbers and said her gauging the winds on a mayoral run are based on her own internal polling.

The Sun-Times poll shows Lewis has strong support among black and Hispanic voters but her appeal doesn't translate to white voters. Preckwinkle, however, was favored by 55 percent of white voters in the poll to Emanuel's 34 percent. Emanuel campaign spokesman Pete Giangreco scoffed at what he called "these inaccurate robo polls" and said the mayor was focused on the job at hand. But there should be cause for concern inside the Emanuel camp.

First is the ongoing drumbeat calling for Preckwinkle to formally announce a candidacy for mayor, which has been fueled for months by local media with a collective hard-on for an Emanuel-Preckwinkle race and likely will reach a fever pitch after Preckwinkle wins re-election as County Board President in November. Preckwinkle and her campaign have consistently said the only race they're concerned about right now is her re-election campaign but this and future polls will have her team giving a mayoral run more than a cursory look. Preckwinkle strategist Ken Snyder told the Sun-Times she'll decided on a mayoral campaign "based on what's in her heart."

One of the reasons Lewis is considering a mayoral run is because, as she said earlier, "I don't see anyone else stepping up." If Lewis decides to run and believes she can beat Emanuel based on this or her own internal polling, she's going to have to undergo a serious media makeover in order to win over white voters who feel she plays on racial tensions almost exclusively and boost the general voter turnout. Only 40 percent of registered voters cast votes in the 2011 mayoral race and conventional wisdom holds that when Chicago voters are disenchanted with their politicians, they stay at home on Election Day. This almost always benefits incumbents such as the mayor. Keeping a low voter turnout and a current lack of serious challengers benefits Emanuel, regardless of his approval ratings.

It could be conceivable for Lewis to play a spoiler role in a theoretical election campaign involving Emanuel, her, Preckwinkle or another candidate who could mobilize the electorate's frustration with the mayor into a serious challenge. A candidate needs to receive at least 50 percent of the vote in February to win election and avoid a runoff. If Lewis can mobilize her base in a three-way race for mayor, she can at least force a runoff between Emanuel and either herself or another candidate, if not win the election outright.

The guessing game over whether Lewis and Preckwinkle will announce mayoral runs also keeps Emanuel's team guessing about how to strategize his re-election campaign. The longer Lewis and/or Preckwinkle wait to announce their intentions, the less time Emanuel will have to put together a platform to attack them or other candidates and to sic the "Chicago Forward" super PAC formed by former Chicago Public Schools chief communication officer Becky Carroll on them. All we know it it's going to be a very interesting few months watching the pieces to the puzzle fall into place.