Is This The Start Of A Cubs Dynasty?
By Stephen Gossett in News on Nov 3, 2016 7:00PM
Assuming the hangover is manageable, Cubs fans on Thursday find themselves feeling a strange, new positive sensation. Not optimism—that’s been growing for the past few years, as the Cubs have steadily actualized on so much promise. It’s the sense of that newfound sense optimism rewarded. So why not let it run unbridled on a day like today? We know it’s only been mere hours since the Cubs slew their goat-horned demons, but let’s just go ahead and get this out there: yes, Chicago, let’s talk about the “d” word.
Granted, the volatility of baseball playoffs means the best team is guaranteed of nothing in the postseason. But the Cubs’ impactful youth means they’re extremely well positioned to kick off a dynasty—and it’s not just the homers who think so.
Sports Illustrated lays out the depth of the young talent and how long it's committed:
Other than (a handful of free agents)—and possibly centerfielder Dexter Fowler, who could turn down his $10 million club option—the club that just won a championship will look almost identical going forward. Of course a few key, if aging, pieces will fall off the books as the years progress… But think about who that means will remain under control through at least 2021—for five full seasons after the Cubs had already realized their fans’ dreams… It’s the entirety of what is already the league’s best young infield, in Contreras, Baez, Russell, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, as well as Schwarber, who hits so well he doesn’t seem to need a position.
In a post called "This Is How Dynasties Begin," Fangraphs broke down the math and showed that Cubs hitters age 25 and under posted an incredible +18.4 Wins Above Replacement, a metric that measures overall player value. Over the last 70 years—excluding the wonky World War II era—“only seven teams have gotten more production from their young hitters than this year’s Cubs team.“ And it you drop the age to 24, “the Cubs still have +18.4 WAR, and only three teams have gotten more production from that group in the last 70 years than this Cubs team.”
Ben Lindbergh, of The Ringer and the Effectively Wild podcast, foresees the same clear skies on the horizon:
“Now they have not only their first title in living memory, but something else almost as sweet: strong odds of adding a second (and, like the similarly slump-busting Red Sox, of not stopping there). The foundation of the 2016 team that slugged and stole and played unprecedented defense will be back and, if anything, better… The front-office essentials are signed to extensions, and the Cubs can afford to keep their young core in place.”
Chicago, of course, has some aging arms, “but the Cubs have unearthed new aces before,” Lindbergh reminds.
To reiterate, nothing is ever guaranteed in the highly randomized world of MLB playoffs. (Just ask a '90s Atlanta Braves fan.) Even when the best team wins, as it did on Wednesday night, that's readily apparent. But given such a sturdy foundation, there's no reason to think a dynasty isn't a legitimate possibility. We can acknowledge that fact without superstition, because who has time for stuff like that now?