Even With Painful Cuts, It Would Take 10 Years To Close Illinois' Deficit

By Stephen Gossett in News on Dec 29, 2016 7:44PM

Getty Images; Photo: Mark Wilson

The state of Illinois, as we’re all painfully aware, is running a nasty deficit at the same the stopgap budget is set to expire and the stalemate grows. But the sheer size of the deficit—plus what and how long it’ll take to remedy—may be even more daunting than expected.

According to a new study by the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois, we can expect to see a deficit of around $13 billion in fiscal year 2017, up from the already staggering $11 billion this year. Without action, the size of the gap will only increase over the next five years, to roughly $14 billion per year.

The way out of the vicious circle? A series of tough spending cuts, namely two percent reductions across discretionary funds—which would likely only further burden already embattled social services and higher education funding. The plan also calls for an increase in either tax rates or an expansion of tax bases, and generating more economic growth.

“Our simulations examine each of these possibilities and show that none by itself is likely to be sufficient to close the budget gap and that, even if we model all of these potential policies and scenarios together, closing the budget gap is likely to be challenging and to take many years,” the authors wrote in the study. How many years? At least ten (!).

"We believe this would have to be maintained for about a decade to bring the budget back into balance,” David Merriman, of the IGPA, told WTTW. “If those combination of things were done or similar things were done, it would restore a lot of confidence in the economy and it would be a feasible plan."

Whatever the ameliorative measure proves most successful, the most pressing first step remains clear: a budget. As the Will Rogers quote that opens the IGPA's study goes, "If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging."